Buying a stock or mutual fund is like a driver who is going down the road at high speed, but is using looking in the rearview mirror as a guide. He can see fine out the back, but has no idea what is ahead. Sound familiar? Your broker is going to help you with driving; I mean picking stocks and mutual funds, so your car (investment) will stay in the road and not crash. He is going to send you all kinds of information. You know - green sheets, pink sheets, blue sheets, full color slick pages, brochures, booklets and more: turn right, turn left, put on the brake, speed up, slow down. He might even get you in on an interview on the Internet with the CEO of some company. Wow! Or you can buy special reports from Morningstar. They are not too expensive. The dedicated investor might want to visit the company headquarters especially if it is a new public offering. Of course, the investor might want to check out the background of the company officers by inquiring at the NASD (National Association of Securities Dealers) and the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) in Washington. Have any of the corporate officers been involved in other companies that have failed? You can ask these questions and more. What does all this information mean? Isnt this looking in the rearview mirror? Some of what you have found is ancient history and some is not quite ancient, maybe a little mildewed. It is supposed to help the investor get an idea if the company is financially sound and is expanding so he can expect his investment to grow. Are these guides any good? Everything is past performance. The required imprint according to regulations on every piece of sales literature is, Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Basically all the information you have is worthless; you are looking in the mirror. If you invest you should determine before you put any money on the line how much you are willing to lose. Will you stick with this hummer if it goes to zero or have you determined what percentage you are willing to part with if it declines? Do you have an exit strategy for both loss and when to take profit? Most investors have neither. Every professional investor I know has an exit plan. He knows how many dollars he will give back if he if wrong and if his stock selection is positive he has some idea of a price objective or having the price performance tell him where to sell. The great secret of the market is not buying. It is selling. Until the investor learns how to sell he will never make money in the market. Looking at past performance (the rearview mirror) may make the investor feel better, but it is not the way to keep your investments on the road to success. |
